THE REALIZATION OF GDP

It is common to see GDP decreases at certain times of the year where production slows down, but this is later compensated with growth that returns this magnitude to normal levels. This has not been the case this year, because during the second quarter (corresponding to the months of April, May and June) of this year, growth has been barely 0.5% in quarterly rate, the lowest in the last five years.

This brake occurs in a context of slowdown common to all countries around the globe and, despite this, the Spanish economy is in a situation of stability that was difficult to imagine a few months ago; so much so that the IMF has been forced to raise what was its growth forecast for this year by two tenths, thus reaching the 2'3% that the European Commission also stated just a few weeks ago.

This brake occurs in a context of slowdown common to all countries around the globe and, despite this, the Spanish economy is in a situation of stability that was difficult to imagine a few months ago; so much so that the IMF has been forced to raise what was its growth forecast for this year by two tenths, thus reaching the 2'3% that the European Commission also stated just a few weeks ago.

However, although the slowdown is not so serious in Spain (since it is the country with the most growth in the entire Eurozone), the forecasts for the following year are not so encouraging. This year it will be possible to surpass the 2% barrier, but what looms next year may not be as encouraging, since it is believed that the growth in 2020 would be approximately 1'9%. This means the first growth below 2% since 2014, the year in which economists drew the end line of the serious economic crisis that shook the country.

This estimate has been included in the macroeconomic table that accompanies the current government's budget plan, so right now, despite the fact that Spain remains afloat and surpasses many of its neighboring countries, the slowdown that its economy is suffering is undeniable. . It is expected that the first two quarters of 2020 will provide growth of approximately 0.5%, while the third and fourth will suffer a slight slowdown responsible for the aforementioned decrease. This will be due to the weakening of the contribution of national demand and a degradation of the foreign sector.

Thus, not only are the glorious years in the past in which, during the recovery from the crisis, growth could perfectly exceed 3%, but it also seems that 2% will join the league, sooner rather than later. of past legends. The governments that have existed during this period of growth have not known how to apply the necessary measures and reforms to stabilize the economic situation and give Spain a foothold in the face of possible future crises, such as the one that looms over us now.

Despite this, in 2020 Spain will continue to be one of the industrialized powers that will grow the most, surpassed only by the US and leaving its European counterparts behind.

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